Transition Exeter

Jeremy Leggett from The Peak Oil Task Force; founder and executive chairman of Solarcentury; a member of the UK government's Renewable Energy Advisory Board 2002-06; former oil geologist; writer of critically acclaimed books, ''The Carbon War' and 'Half Gone'.

Event report : notes from talk

The effects, and signs, of early peak oil & gas:

1)   When full realisation sinks in there will be panic in the markets & world-wide economic chaos.

2)   There will be, as there already is, more & more whistle-blowing about the real nature of the crisis by senior figures in the oil & energy industries as they realise that peak oil is upon us.

3)   Old oil fields show that production in a field can collapse quickly.   North Sea oil production is declining by 8% - 9% a year.   Russian oil production may possibly have already peaked.

4)   Global oil discoveries of big fields is crashing;  the major finds were from 1930s to 1970s.

5)   The lead time on developing an oil field is >10 years.   New fields are smaller, and are often in remote places, or in deep water.

6)   The 'capacity pipeline' (flow rates of oil) drops fast from 2011.

7)   1/3 of 'global reserves' may not even exist:  they suddenly 'increased' in the 1980s when OPEC announced they would keep production to a certain percentage of their reserves.

8)   'Enhanced recovery techniques' (using more advanced technology) failed to raise production in the US;  production collapsed from 1970 despite such techniques.

9)   Canadian Tar Sands:  there is oil there, but it is frozen solid, and has to be melted - a very slow, dirty, expensive process, requiring much energy.

10)  Making oil from coal:  it can be done, but is slow, dirty and expensive.

11)  Gas reserves cannot close the easy-oil gap.

12)  The producer-economies, especially in the Middle East, are burning more and more of their gas and oil to produce electricity;  they may eventually find they have little to spare for export;  by 2013 Britain will have to import half its energy.   [See The Times, 19-05-08.      Abu Dhabi is planning a £500 million coal-fired power plant to produce electricity.   Its natural gas is being pumped into oil wells to maintain pressure & improve oil output].

13)  There are huge infrastructure legacy problems, particularly with pipelines which are corroding.

14)  The oil industry faces a runaway skills shortage with which to face the mounting problems:  many of its managers, scientists and technicians are nearing retirement.

16)  Rising CO₂ levels will increasingly focus energy options.  Coal is by far the greatest danger:  there is so much of it.   There is enough coal in the world to trigger climate disaster if it is all burned.   (USA, Russia, China, India & Australia have some 80% of the world's coal reserves - in that order - with USA and Russia having nearly half of all reserves).

17)  'Carbon capture' won't be ready in time.

18)  The nuclear option would be too late:  it takes over 10 years to build a nuclear power station.   They would use far many resources, which would be better spent on renewables, even ignoring all safety, terrorist and radioactive waste disposal problems.

19)  Renewable options have been held back far too long, especially in Britain.

20)  If we left it too late we might not have enough energy to develop and produce renewables:  steel for wind and marine turbines might be too expensive to produce.

21)  The political culture in Britain is in denial about the carbon energy outlook;  there seems to be institutional denial about our looming energy crisis.

22) The 'extremes and extremists' problem:  banks and other investment bodies, take a very short term view - immediate profits are what matter, regardless of the nation’s, and their own, medium and long term interests;  they take great financial risks if that is what everyone else is doing.   This applies to their attitude to the coming energy crisis.

23)  The oil industry is locked into its century-old 'can do' attitude and generally still believes there are still oil fields to be discovered and to develop;  it is still, publicly, in denial.